Another turbulent few weeks have passed, the new Chancellor and PM going AWOL for weeks after their ‘election’ before delivering a devastating ‘mini-budget’, the significant feature of which was subjected to a U-turn less than two days later. Within a month of taking office, Liz Truss was fighting for her political life, many of her own party wanting to get rid of her and this was before her wooden and cliché ridden media interviews and conference speech. Liz Truss’s Cabinet seems to be on a war footing and some commentators have raised the constitutional question as to how she could be removed. If Truss can’t get her budget through the Commons (and many of her own party plan to vote against it despite party chairman Jake Berry’s threat that they would lose the Whip), the King could dissolve Parliament and call an election. So far King Charles seems compliant, eg accepting the PM’s ‘advice’ not to attend COP27 despite having received a personal invitation, but at least one commentator has said he is entitled to exercise more constitutional power than the Queen chose to.
It seems strange that Truss and Kwarteng (lack of objectivity within their privileged bubble, surrounded by sycophants?) failed to anticipate the public and political opprobrium, panic and market frenzy which their fiscal intervention would unleash. The measures within their ‘mini-budget’ (so badged in order to evade Office for Budget Responsibility analysis) went against what so many economists recommended and ministers’ attempts to rescue it via the reminder of ‘supply side measures’ and a full Budget to come understandably didn’t cut much ice. As one tweeter said:‘The pound has crashed to an all time low, alarming the markets, experts and politicians alike. They had weeks to prepare for this, while remaining schtumm about their plans – did they seriously do no research to assess what the reactions to their plans might be??’ The tussle between the Treasury and Bank of England led to a Bank intervention to steady the ship, humiliating for Truss and Kwarteng, and we have to remember (since the sacking of Tom Scholar) that there’s a vacuum at the top of the Treasury. But no worries (joke) as Truss’s Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Chris Philp, and Financial Secretary to the Treasury (Andrew Griffith) continue to spout their ideological nonsense over the airwaves at every opportunity.
The threat to make further cuts to public services (£50bn a year according to economists) has to be taken seriously: some senior Tories (like Jake Berry and Steve Baker) have felt the need to apologise or step back from previous tactless and heartless comments. At some point robotic sycophant Simon Case, Cabinet Secretary, may have to do the same, having declared at the time of the budget that government departments needed the ‘fat’ trimming off them. Note the dog whistle assumption of ‘what taxpayers expect’: ‘There are plenty of areas where the government can become more efficient. We’re continually reviewing to make sure we’re getting good value for money and I think that’s what taxpayers expect’. What he doesn’t suggest, of course (funny, that) is the huge tax avoidance by non-doms and how massive public sector cuts might be unnecessary if the UK was to remove non-dom status.
Of course the top rate of tax U-turn would be no comfort for those desperately worried about their mortgages or even whether new applicants could get them at all. Andy Verity, BBC Economics correspondent, said: ‘Mortgage lenders are pulling deals because the cost of borrowing over 2 or 5 years has shot up so fast along with gilt yields. That’s happening regardless of attempts at calming by BoE (Bank of England). I can’t remember seeing that before – and I’ve been reporting financial markets for 27 years’. It seems quite a few of us are now convinced the Conservatives, knowing they’re finished, are deliberately making themselves unelectable and going for broke. Nevertheless, Truss sticks to her ‘growth, growth, growth’ mantra and her dog whistle whipping up of hatred for the ‘anti-growth coalition’.
One of the oddest things about recent times is realising this government, like the last one, are immune to shame, seeing their approach as demonstrating courage and badge of honour rather than the reckless abdication of responsibility it actually is. Times journalist Matthew Parris is one of the latest to deconstruct the ‘anti-growth coalition’ bogeyman, a growing banner under which Liz Truss has placed environmental bodies such as the RSPB and National Trust, which blame her plans for ‘environmental vandalism’. Whereas Parris describes a large swathe of the Conservative Party as coming under this banner, Byline Times suggests that Truss is its real leader. ‘However, the list of people who the Prime Minister and her party have identified as the “enemies of enterprise” over the course of the Conservative Party Conference this week is rather long. By my count, it appears to include anyone who lives in north London, broadcasters, environmentalists, students, the Institute for Fiscal Studies and Bank of England, financial traders, Twitter users and the former Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries’. The paper details how successive Conservative administrations have worked against growth at the same time as pursuing austerity and points out that for such demonising to work people have to be on her side, whereas a poll last week showed 73% of voters have an unfavourable view of Truss.
The media have had a field day analysing the character and approach of both Truss and Kwarteng, anonymous comments about the latter confirming what we know to be the Eton ethos: to cultivate effortless superiority. Said one Tory: ‘I found him very odd to deal with … but there is an intellectual arrogance about Kwasi and Liz [Truss] and Jacob [Rees-Mogg] and those four to five people at the top. They genuinely do think they are cleverer than anyone else and that other people’s views are slightly tiresome’. A second former cabinet minister told another MP just last week they had found him ‘extremely difficult’ to get on with and a third Tory MP who has worked closely with Kwarteng called him ‘the worst combination of laziness and arrogance’. Who does all this remind you of? Perhaps the worst example of this arrogance, though, is the evidence (apparently not investigated) of his hobnobbing with financiers over champagne, leading to suggestions of millions being made by shorting the pound. Insider trading is a crime but it’s doubtful Kwarteng thought he was ‘doing anything wrong’, or if he was aware what his behaviour amounted to, didn’t care.
What’s been shocking in recent weeks is seeing just how much Truss is in hock to the right-wing ERG (European Research Group misnomer) and even more the Institute of Economic Affairs think tank, whose agenda is to shrink the State. They run her and must have been mightily displeased at the top rate of tax U-turn. It’s not unlikely that she’s tried to placate them by withdrawing the plan (existence denied) for a public information campaign on reducing energy use, as this is antithetical to IEA’s abhorrence of the ‘nanny state’. In previous Conservative administrations this ideology was an undercurrent, exposed by certain journalists but now it’s out there in plain sight so even those who don’t keep abreast of politics will know about it. Linked to the mini budget,Kwarteng is expected to announce changes in eight areas including planning, business regulation, childcare, immigration, agricultural productivity and financial services. On the surface this sounds good but it could well be bad news as he will be influenced (dictated to?) by the Free Market Forum (FMF), an offshoot of the IEA, which wants an end to free childcare hours, the release of green belt land for housing, an end to corporation tax and removal of the requirement for teacher training qualifications for graduates.
Worryingly, the FMF has substantial Conservative support: ‘60 Tory MPs among its parliamentary supporters including Truss, Kwarteng, the deputy prime minister, Thérèse Coffey, the levelling up secretary, Simon Clarke, and the trade secretary, Kemi Badenoch. The former chancellor Norman Lamont and ex-minister John Redwood are also backers, while her No 10 deputy chief of staff, Ruth Porter, is on the advisory board’.
Rafael Behr puts it more strongly, suggesting that Truss and her colleagues are addicted to this approach: ‘Liz Truss’s Tories are higher than ever on ideology – and they’re refusing to sober up’, spelling out the dangers. ‘Under pressure to balance the books, ministers rifle through the policy cabinet for something to sustain the ideological buzz. The hand inevitably alights on the bottle containing benefit cuts (or, as it is marked on the label, a decision not to peg welfare payments to rising inflation)…… Liz Truss’s leadership signals descent into the chronic phase, where craving for a hit overcomes all faculties of reason. The prime minister and her chancellor have already blown their stash of credibility on a binge of unfunded tax cuts. Then the debt collectors came – literally, in the form of soaring bond yields’.
On Sunday veteran Tory ‘Sir’ Charles Walker was interviewed on Radio 4, commenting on the three articles in the Sunday papers by Cabinet ministers, all pleading for party unity. Their desperate use of the Keir Starmer in Downing Street bogeyman illustrates how much they fear losing their seats because of their policies and their infighting. Walker said, with no seeming awareness of his party’s self-obsessed conduct over the summer months, that the government must focus on the anxious population rather than its own internal affairs. A bit late for that.
So what have we got to look forward over the coming months? More of this government (even if Liz Truss is offloaded as PM) peddling its far right agenda, more Cabinet infighting, ongoing cost of living crisis, strikes in more sectors including the NHS continuing or being balloted on, three hour power cuts, a worsening Covid (and possibly flu) wave ( 9,631 Covid patients were in hospital by Wednesday), yet more Tory donors entering the House of Lords (already bigger than many countries’ second chambers) and a possibly dark Christmas (surely numerous councils won’t be funding the usual lights in high streets). Marvellous. Meanwhile, it’s surely unacceptable that Parliament was in recess for so long, during the summer while the cost of living crisis deepened, then for the party conferences, so will not start its new session until the 11th. Of course this also hinders proper scrutiny of the government’s conduct because during this limbo MPs can’t question ministers on concerns from constituents about the cost of living crisis, including rising mortgage payments.
Not surprisingly, Labour is 33 points ahead of the Tories, yet it comes to something when longstanding Conservatives announce their intention to vote Labour, as Nick Boles did this week. How humiliating for the PM and Chancellor that Boles, who was the MP for Grantham and Stamford from 2010 to 2019, writes so frankly about them and their plans. ‘Since 2010, when all three of us were first elected as Conservative MPs, they have known what they believe – and have viewed those who didn’t agree with them, or didn’t share their unshakeable certainty, with amiable contempt. The UK is beginning to discover what it is like to be led by people who despise compromise and lack all humility. Every decision they have made in the past few weeks has its roots in the book they published as newly elected MPs, Britannia Unchained’. He goes on to deconstruct the ideology driving this government: ‘…real life and a modern economy do not conform to ideological constructs. The UK is dealing with an unprecedented combination of challenges: an ageing workforce, an energy supply shock caused by a European war, the sudden erection of trade barriers between British businesses and their largest export market, and supply chains that have been upended by a global pandemic. Claiming that cutting taxes on the richest individuals and largest companies will lead to a surge in economic growth betrays a wilful naivety…. My brief career in politics taught me a few crucial lessons. Those who are full of certainty are usually wrong. The capacity to listen, to observe, to weigh up evidence and to change your mind are some of the most important qualities in a leader. Of all the different kinds of fool, the most dangerous kind is the clever fool’. Oof!
There can be few new prime ministers who’ve experienced as many self-inflicted humiliations as Liz Truss, including complaints from the writer of the Moving On Up dance song, cynically recruited as her conference speech walk-on accompaniment: ‘I don’t want my song being a soundtrack to lies’, said M People founder Mike Pickering. ‘Moving On Out’ as the Metro’s wags put it. Then there was the massive tax cut U-turn, media interviewers suppressing laughter at her robotic and vacuous responses to challenging questions, having to declare President Macron ‘a friend’ when her ‘jury’ had stayed out so long and now having to sack a trade minister, Connor Burns, for allegedly inappropriate conduct (touching a man’s thigh being the latest news on this) during the recent conference. The lack of personal awareness is quite staggering: we’re told that the prime minister took direct action on being informed of this allegation and is ‘clear that all ministers should maintain the high standards of behaviour – as the public rightly expects’. Rhondda MP Chris Bryant tweeted: ‘No good options for the Tories. Keep Truss and endure two years of endless embarrassment. Ditch Truss and seed even more discord in the party. Either way their reputation for sound money and sanity is permanently damaged. Clinging on without consent poisons the future’.
One of the many things Labour no doubt would have wished to challenge the government on during this long recess is Health Secretary Therese Coffey’s decision to scrap the long-awaited health inequalities White Paper. Again we see more shrinking of the State: the PM wanting to review existing and planned measures to tackle obesity, her puppet masters no doubt believing that these also smack of ‘nanny state’. But again Truss and Coffey have encountered a massive backlash, with criticism from their own side, dozens of health organisations and 26 former health ministers.
A key illustration of health inequality is reflected in the latest excess deaths statistics – more than 330,000 excess deaths in Great Britain between 2012 and 2019 attributed to spending cuts to public services and benefits introduced by a UK government pursuing austerity policies. Notably, these stats relate to the pre-pandemic era so cannot be conflated with Covid.
A perennial cause of inequality is poor mental health, which may get some additional media focus as it’s World Mental Health Day tomorrow. The theme for 2022 is the vaguely expressed goal of ‘make mental health and wellbeing for all a global priority’: laudable but difficult to pin down. It’s shocking that so many patients are waiting years for treatment and many are unlikely to get it on the NHS but cannot afford private help. Not surprisingly, numbers of people needing treatment rose dramatically as a result of the pandemic. According to NHS England, the number of people waiting for community mental health care has risen to 1.2 million, with the NHS missing several targets, but this isn’t the complete picture as the numbers exclude those waiting for inpatient care and other services.. In addition, the figure for those waiting for a mental health follow-up appointment or learning disability service at the end of 2021-22 was up from 1.08 million at the end of quarter three. Furthermore, the goal of getting 1.6 million into talking therapy services was missed – only 1.2m started and it’s known that despite manipulation of statistics by IAPT (Increasing Access to Psychological Therapies, aimed at those with ‘mild to moderate depression’) many drop out early on or do not complete for various reasons.
But as stressed many times previously, a key reason for poor mental health which goes under the radar is anxiety about money, housing and access to health services, etc, and about the incompetence of a government which doesn’t try to contain these issues but actually exacerbates them. This leaves many feeling insecure and very anxious about their futures. It was really telling that numerous organisations had to work together to even get mental ill-health included in the Covid Inquiry remit.
The media and politicians so often refer to Covid in the past tense but it’s on the increase again and there are concerns about new Omicron sub-variants taking hold and also combining with flu. Last week hospital admissions were up 48% (9,631 people with Covid were in hospital as of Wednesday, according to NHS England – the highest figure since 3 August). In addition, 1m are thought to have Long Covid, often a very disabling condition. ‘Danny Altmann, professor of immunology at Imperial College London and expert on long Covid, described the situation as deeply disappointing, noting that while the number of people with long Covid appeared to dip over the summer, it is now clear there is a definite, ongoing, upwards trend. He said: ‘This reinforces the message that it’s really foolhardy to imagine we can laugh off a massive, growing BA.5 wave as ‘living with the virus’ and ‘no worse than flu. Long Covid and even long Covid from the 2022 Omicron waves continues to wreck lives in people of all ages. I do wish we could just remind everyone to take this seriously – get boosted, keep indoor meetings well ventilated, wear masks indoors and for travel’. Professor Altmann also pointed out that public health messaging around the need for boosters hasn’t been strong: with the IEA-driven government we can’t be optimistic about this changing any time soon.
Not for the first time, it’s worrying that again the BBC has chosen not to cover major protests two weekends running about the cost of living crisis, dangers to the environment and (this weekend) demonstrations related to the treatment of Julian Assange. Enough Is Enough, the organisation behind the cost of living protests, ‘has five general aims: proper living-wage rises, decent homes for all, higher taxes on wealth and windfalls, and an end to poverty of food and heating. It promises to mobilise a national network of support for coordinated demonstrations and strike action on these issues’. We can only think that this lack of reporting is a result of the BBC’s increasing collusion with the government, but this is dangerous stuff for a public service broadcaster.
It’s sobering and frustrating to read about how the UK is seen abroad. Some European newspapers are thought to be revelling in ‘post-Brexit Schadenfreude’, Spain’s El Espanol suggesting that Britain seems to have imploded: ‘It should be remembered that the British voted in favour of ‘Brexit’ in the belief that they would take control and become a stronger country if they managed to throw off the yoke of Europe. Well, the exact opposite seems to be happening. And now that they are no longer under the protection of Brussels, they have no right or access to aid from the 27. If they want to overcome the crisis in which they are immersed, they will have to do it by themselves’. A couple of papers compare the UK to Argentina, the Irish Times columnist Stephen Collins suggesting: ‘The danger facing the UK now is that it could in time become the Argentina of Europe. It should not be forgotten that Argentina was once among the richest countries in the world but generations of bad political decision-making has brought it to its current sorry state’. For its part, France’s Le Monde said Truss’s first weeks in charge had been ‘spectacular and catastrophic’. This is such a tsunami of criticism that it’s hard to know how arrogant and chipper ministers would counter it.
Recently mentioned in this blog, the concept of ‘quiet quitting’, originally coined to apply to the workplace, has now been taken further by the Guardian’s Zoe Williams. ‘Sure, you can strive less in the workplace. But what happens when you dial down bigger things, like parenting, relationships and even showering?’ She questions the concept as it applies to work: (‘I reject the concept, from a workplace perspective: it merely means doing what you’re contractually required to do. This I would call “work”. Anything more than this is “hustle”) but wonders whether it can usefully be applied elsewhere. Such areas might include relationships, friendships, family, parenting, ‘excessive grooming’, social media and highbrow culture. This is written in a jokey way but some of the categories are certainly worth thinking about it, as so many activities are based on automatic pilot.
Finally, talking about highbrow culture, 17 October sees the award of the 2022 Booker Prize, ‘the UK’s most prestigious prize for long-form fiction’, the winners of which have often, in my view, been unreadable. This year has seemed much more promising, with several contenders being mercifully short. This year you can see short video readings of each one, the readers including such luminaries as Jarvis Cocker, David Harewood and Anna Friel. Having read two on the list, I’m looking forward to seeing which excerpts were chosen and perhaps finding out why!
Politics and mental health - the missing link? 