‘There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen’ (Vladimir Ilyich Lenin) – a timely quote from the BBC yesterday considering we’re now at one of those historical junctures. Many were plunged into despond at the election of Donald Trump in November and, following a brief respite for the Christmas and New Year, even more when Trump took office and immediately issued a slew of far-reaching executive orders. But politicians, media and the public were blindsided by his almost casual overturning of the international world order, becoming progressively more alarming over the last fortnight. What’s crystal clear is that the US is no longer an ally and the myth of the ‘special relationship’ needs firmly putting to bed.
At every stage Trump has increasingly demonstrated zero understanding of the process of government, which for him is a matter of doing ‘deals’: there’s no nuanced and intelligent consideration of ‘grey areas’, everything is just black and white, ‘shooting from the hip’ and directed to stoking his ego and benefiting his business interests. First, we had his lawless proposals for Gaza, suggesting that it would become a kind of Riviera of the Middle East, this Gaza a Lago necessitating total displacement of the Palestinians. Trump opined that the ‘only reason’ they don’t want to leave is that ‘they have nowhere else to go’, but of course his ideas as where they should be exiled takes no account of homeland or statehood. All is transactional.
Second, we had Vice President J D Vance last weekend at the Munich Security Conference astonishing attendees by attacking European defence spending and insisting that the biggest threat to Europe was coming from within, the threat to democracy allegedly emanating from limitations on ‘free speech’ (aka hate speech). Vance’s attack was designed to suggest that European democracies may not be worth defending because of this alleged inner threat, Le Monde calling this tactic ‘a declaration of ‘ideological war on Europe’.
Third, several commentators having observed that contrary to Trump’s inflated view of his deal making skills, they’re actually pretty poor, eg Afghanistan, he did a terrifyingly similar thing with Putin, effectively capitulating on Ukraine and throwing Zelensky, who hitherto had relied heavily on American support, under the bus and excluding both him and European leaders from negotiations.Historian Timothy Garton Ash compared such a ‘senseless capitulation’ to the appeasement of Hitler in 1938 after the invasion of Czechoslovakia.
Then we had Trump’s astonishing projections and lies about Ukraine, suggesting that they had started the ‘war’, calling Zelensky a dictator, criticising him for not holding elections and saying he only had a 4% approval rating when it’s actually 57%. Trump also suggested that the US had given Ukraine far more aid than Europe had: not so. Together Europe has given Ukraine £132bn since the start of the war. America has given £114bn.While so many politicians have remained silent during these onslaughts or danced on the head of a pin to distance themselves from Trump’s statements without criticising him directly, Zelensky tackled him head on, only to be ‘advised’ by Trump henchmen to ‘tone it down’ when he rightly diagnosed that Trump occupied a ‘disinformation bubble’. But lo, we now hear that Trump later admitted that Russia invaded Ukraine, begging the question of how many more absurd statements he might feel compelled to withdraw.
It was surely very telling, too, that following the meeting between Zelensky and US special envoy Keith Kellogg, the press conference was cancelled – by the US. One commentator suggested that Kellogg felt ‘sidelined’ by Trump and this view has been supported by others eg a comment on the BBC website: ‘The well meaning old man Kellogg is being used by Trump as cover for his pact with Putin’. Indeed, a split with Trump appeared stark as Kellogg called Zelensky ‘the embattled and courageous leader of a nation at war’. It’s breathtakingly imperious for Trump to so casually decide that Zelensky isn’t necessary for negotiating the end of the conflict. ‘I don’t think he’s very important to be at meetings, to be honest with you’. How ironic is that – ‘to be honest with you’, being just the opposite, of course, but pretending to honour journalists with his innermost wisdom. It’s good that unlike the charlatan Boris Johnson, who’s still sitting on the fence, Keir Starmer publicly came out in support of Zelensky and Ukraine.
The media haven’t held back with their (justified, for once) dramatic headlines and article titles eg ‘The awful price of Trump’s ‘peace’ plan for Ukraine becomes clear as Washington upends the transatlantic alliance and embarks on a historic realignment’; ‘the doctrine of ‘America First’ seems to imply the demise of the liberal international order’; as Trump empowers Russia and the Far Right he is laying the foundations for undermining democracies around the world;’ The new world order is exactly what it looks like – are we too frozen with fear to name it?’. Nor, of course, have social media users: one X user tweeting: ‘This is such an important moment for the world, seeing how much Trump is a Russian asset and what European countries do about it. The US is surrendering its global position for ever, becoming a rogue far right state’. Another said: ‘Pretty disturbed by some of the framing being widely used on the Trump talks. It’s as if the genesis of the war is entirely forgotten. This isn’t a conflict which needs mediation. It was an illegal unprovoked act of aggression. It could end tomorrow if Putin just withdrew.’
Regarding the asset observation and Trump being owned by Putin, this has been attributed to Trump allegedly having been recruited by the KGB back in 1987 and has been blackmailed ever since. Said an X user: ‘No one should be shocked by Trump’s betrayal of our allies. Trump is a Russian asset. The Biden DOJ was foolish for not investigating Trump’s Russian ties and the election hack’. Even more alarmingly, a commentator said ‘French media outlet Le Point is reporting Trump will join Putin in Moscow for Russia’s May 9th Victory Day celebrations. America’s humiliation is now complete’. This sounds quite genuine and not a conspiracy theory – time will tell. No wonder Trump Unfit For Office has been trending on X.
Meanwhile, besides wanting to claim credit for ending the war, the key reason emerged for Trump’s relentless involvement – access to valuable mineral resources located in Ukraine. No surprise there – same reason for his acquisitive strategy on Canada and Greenland. An initial US proposal apparently asked for (demanded?) a 50% stake in Ukraine’s natural resources, including critical minerals, oil, and gas, as well as stakes in ports and other key infrastructure through a joint investment fund. Disgracefully, the demand was framed in terms of needing to repay the US for wartime support. A source also told media that Ukraine was threatened with the loss of Starlink if it didn’t reach a deal, Starlink providing crucial internet access to Ukraine and its military. This audacious request was rejected by Zelensky for lacking ‘concrete security guarantees’, yet we have arrogant Trump henchmen insisting that Zelensky ‘will’ sign an agreement within days. Again, time will tell.
Needless to say, numerous politicians, historians and journalists have opined on these events and shifting of political tectonic plates, including Sir John Major last weekend on the BBC. Journalist Robert Reich reminds us that post-war liberal democracies stuck together, on the opposite being autocracies Russia and China. The relatively rapid recent change has been the US effectively joining those two in the rich oligarchy stakes ‘at lightning speed under Donald Trump and Elon Musk’. Until recently it would have been unimaginable to hear an American Secretary of State state their intention to ‘explore the incredible opportunities that exist to partner with the Russians’, both geopolitically and economically. As we’ve seen, these Americans are, probably unwittingly, using the psychological mechanism of projection to justify this volte face. Last weekend VP J D Vance, ‘the man who refuses to say that Trump lost the 2020 presidential election – accused Europe of abandoning the values of democracy by excluding the far right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) from government…. There should be no doubt about what is happening. The Trump-Vance-Musk regime wants to empower the nationalist far-right in Europe in order to divide European democracies and weaken the western alliance. This potentially emboldens further Russian military incursions like the 2014 and 2022 invasions of Ukraine’.
George Monbiot reflects on the possibility of systemic collapse in the US (and of course, such an event could trigger a global political and economic meltdown. ‘… we cannot now rule it out: the possibility of systemic collapse in the United States. The degradation of federal government by Donald Trump and Elon Musk could trigger a series of converging and compounding crises, leading to social, financial and industrial failure…But the hazards extend much further. Musk, calling for a “wholesale removal of regulations”, sends his child soldiers to attack government departments stabilising the entire US system. Regulations, though endlessly maligned by corporate and oligarchic propaganda, are all that protect us from multiple disasters’. He goes on to point out that already fragile systems are far less resilient to sudden shocks and within such a situation, the far right and the wealthy benefit from chaos and everyone else is left to sink or swim. ‘A consistent feature of globalised capitalism is an unintentional assault on systemic resilience…Trump presents himself as the hero who will save the nation from the ruptures he has caused, while deflecting the blame on to scapegoats’. (The cynical manipulation bit MAGA cultists still don’t get).
A different view is taken by commentator Simon Jenkins, to the effect that we have to accept the reality of what we’re seeing. Jenkins: ‘The US has chosen the worst possible moment and the worst possible way to say it, but it is right to call for a realignment….We must try to understand the case they are making, whether we agree with it or not. Yes, these men are mendacious and hypocritical… (but)Trump/Vance have cut through half a century of consensual waffle about the US’s God-given destiny to lead the world to goodness and freedom. Whether the issue is peace and war, immigration or tariffs, they claim to seek the US’s self-interest and nothing else. Why should Americans fork out billions each year to defend a Europe that fails to defend itself? Why should they arm distant nations to fight their neighbours, or tip staggering amounts of aid into Africa’s basket cases?… In reality, these talking points are not new, though they have not previously been expressed so brutally by an administration’. You can say that again. Naked realpolitik.
Possibly the worst version of Trump we’ve seen so far (he sounded demented in clips played by media last night) is his performance at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Maryland (at which Liz Truss has made another treacherous and deluded appearance). ‘Drunk on power, Donald Trump spent Saturday afternoon before adoring fans, boasting of his victories, taunting his enemies and casting himself as America’s absolute monarch, supreme leader and divine emperor rolled into one….a man who has never felt so sure of himself, so contemptuous of his foes and so convinced of his righteous mission to make America great again, even if it means breaking china, cracking skulls and leaving global destruction in his wake…this was a man who has never felt so sure of himself, so contemptuous of his foes and so convinced of his righteous mission to make America great again, even if it means breaking china, cracking skulls and leaving global destruction in his wake’.
This writer describes how the conference illustrates the inverted reality world Trump inhabits, bragging that ‘we stood up to all the corrupt forces that were destroying America. We took away their power. We took away their confidence … and we took back our country.” ‘When someone wakes up knowing that, when their self-aggrandisement is so monumental, they are like a golfer who believes they will never miss. But as Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine put it, Trump is living inside a disinformation bubble. The iron law of politics is that all bubbles burst’. The question must be will it burst before Trump has caused irreparable damage across the entire globe?
Trump’s antics at this conference must be in the minds of those focused on this week’s visits to the White House by Macron and Starmer. Key questions on political programmes have been around how should Starmer approach the meeting – usually expressed in an unhelpfully polarized way eg should he flatter Trump or tell the truth? Of course it’s neither – it’s a question of navigating a careful path between frankness and diplomacy and staying on that tightrope. From what Trump has said so far about Europe and its politicians one can’t help feeling that he considers the French and British leaders as mere buzzing bluebottles to be squatted away. We will see, but in the meantime, it seems terrible that so much time and energy in numerous quarters have to taken up handwringing and speculating as to what the Orange One thinks and ‘means’. Indeed, charlatan Boris Johnson has devoted his weekly Daily Mail column to just this subject, posing as ‘interpreter’. Besides raising fear and alarm, another side effect of this intense focus on Trumpery is the danger of other important news going unreported. There’s certainly an intense focus on the German election but this very much relates to the Trump focus because of the rise of far right AfD (Alternative fur Deutschland).
In usual timely fashion, this week’s Radio 4 Profile features NATO chief Mark Rutte, described by one observer as a ‘Trump whisperer’ and by many others as ‘able to talk to anyone’. Having this former businessman, politician and PM as NATO top man could prove vital to preventing Trump-catalyzed anarchy. ‘During his tenure, he steered the Netherlands through times of significant national and global upheaval. From economic crisis, to the coronavirus pandemic. And now, as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s 14th Secretary General, he faces his next challenge – leading Europe’s response to recent Russia-US talks over Ukraine’. Well worth a listen.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0028995
It should go without saying that this dramatic political realignment and autocratic rejection of democratic and diplomatic norms is seriously damaging for our mental wellbeing. But going under the radar of media coverage doesn’t make it less important. As George Monbiot’s article made clear, the effects of systemic collapse leads to ‘an assault on everyone’s wellbeing’. Every government should hope for the best and prepare for the worst. But, as they do with climate and ecological breakdown, freshwater depletion, the possibility of food system collapse, antibiotic resistance and nuclear proliferation, most governments, including the UK’s, now seem to hope for the best and leave it there. So, though there is no substitute for effective government, we must seek to create our own backup systems’. He goes on to describe how we could do this, eg via neighbourhood support networks and activism. ‘We also – and urgently – need national and global action, brokered by governments. But it’s beginning to look as if no one has our backs (my italics). Prepare for the worst’.
This gets to the heart of the mental wellbeing conundrum because (in psychoanalytic theory) we unconsciously transfer the authority originally vested as infants in our parents/caregivers, whose role it is to look after us and do the psychological ‘holding’ (known as containment, protecting us from anxiety) to authorities in later life such as employers and governments. We elect the latter to look after the country and thereby look after our interests. During the pandemic we saw good and bad examples of this – a good example being Angela Merkel, who effectively created a partnership between the German government, scientists and citizens and a bad example being the corrupt and incompetent government of Boris Johnson, which lurched from crisis to crisis while managing to line its pockets from crony contracting. Such an approach can make us feel very alone, unsupported and justifiably frightened.
Politicians agonise about the size of the benefits bill but a high proportion of it, especially with young people, is due to mental ill health. This should not be surprising given the world we’re living in and the seeming inability of these politicians and policy makers to effectively address it. This would be, for example by properly funding psychological treatments that genuinely help instead of (since the mass move to CBT after 2006, Tony Blair having been seduced by the neoliberal agenda) over reliance on medication, short term cognitive treatments (which in many cases are false economies in the long run) and cosmetic tinkering. I guess we have to live in hope…
Finally, on a positive note, as the winter approaches its end (we hope) it has been very uplifting to see swathes of snowdrops, crocuses, hellebores in bloom, with daffodils well on the way. Despite the threat posed by climate change, it’s comforting to see these beautiful displays, a reminder of the persistence of the seasons regardless of whatever else is going on in the world…
Politics and mental health - the missing link? 