When I began this blog during the first 2020 lockdown, the key theme, which has continued ever since, was the deleterious effect on our mental wellbeing caused by leaders’ (such as employers and governments, which in psychoanalytic theory serve as proxies for our original source of authority – parents) failure to take care of us in an overarching sense. Back then it was due to incompetence, corruption and deliberate lack of caring – if you need a reminder check out the Covid Inquiry live stream to see the arrogance of those having facilitated the notorious PPE VIP lane still very evident in the performances of people like the blatantly unrepentant Matt Hancock and Lord Agnew). These days there’s far less incompetence and corruption but still massive uncertainty over government policy, for example regarding benefits, and the government’s capacity to repair the large black hole, especially given the onslaught of Trump tariffs. And that’s before you even factor in the overturning of the international world order, which, while far from perfect, brought about a measure of consensus and stability.
But unlike the laissez faire Tories, who sat on their policy laurels for fourteen years, the government is urgently seeking to address the steel manufacturing crisis (origins with Conservative heroine Margaret Thatcher, of course) by recalling Parliament in order to push through takeover of the Scunthorpe plant. We’re reminded thatBritish Steel makes the vast majority of UK rail track and the government has been seeking a deal to keep the plant open. Although the government is maintaining that the problems aren’t related to this it’s hard to believe that Trump’s 25% tariff on steel exports to the US aren’t central to this sudden course of action. It seems staggering that for so many years the Conservatives thought outsourcing manufacturing industry and privatisation of essential utilities were a good thing. It’s taken the shocking, narcissistic antics of Donald Trump to wake politicians up to the dangerous reality of depending on states like Russia and China for our supplies. Having watched part of the debate, it was clear that quite a few MPs had not, for one reason or another, managed to make it back for this crucial debate. I wondered whether the Conservatives were even whipped to attend. The Steel Industry (Special Measures) passed through the Commons and House of Lords on Saturday and now awaits royal assent.
There’s been non-stop media coverage and speculation about Trump’s tariffs and further uncertainty caused by his switching back and forth between implementation and their pausing or cancellation. Pro-Trump commentators seem at pains to present his apparently economically illiterate strategy as a carefully thought through plan, but many economists are pointing out how damaging this will be for the United States despite Trump himself making statements like ‘it’ll be a beautiful thing’. We might have thought we’d seen it all concerning Trump’s contradictory bragging media performances but the most appalling so far for someone occupying such high office must surely be his vulgar boast that countries were queuing up to ‘kiss my ass’, pretending to mimic diplomats’ voices begging for a tariffs deal, coupled with his narcissistic admission that tariffs on China were raised to exorbitant levels because they failed to pay him ‘respect’. On the contrary, as expected, they came out fighting, are refusing to capitulate and are resorting to quite clever tactics to get Trump to climb down. At least one journalist has pointed out that those who sidestep the news will soon have it brought home to them PDQ because of the impact of tariffs will soonbe felt.‘What is still for the cheerfully news-avoidant just a faintly incomprehensible story about rising and plummeting stock markets will, in coming weeks, start shaping everyday lives for the worse’.
A key reason for Trump’s 90 day tariffs pause was investors’ dumping of treasury bonds: as a non-economist I found this a useful explainer, setting out what a bond is, how they’re traded, what are the yields and the effect on bonds of the tariffs. ‘Investors have sold US bonds in huge quantities, driving down their value and sending the yield higher, making future government debt more expensive to issue… there was a fear in the White House that paying a higher interest rate on national debt would increase the government’s annual spending deficit, adding pressure to an already stretched budget and increasing the overall debt mountain. Worse, the $29tn market in US treasuries is the bedrock of the global financial system and heavy selling could put pressure on other parts of it, forcing banks or other institutions to default and causing a wider financial crisis’.
I bet he hated backing down on this but it seems he had no choice in order to head off a total crisis. Although bond markets have settled a little, the yields are apparently high and his fan base could be undermined if banks start charging more for mortgages. The final mischievous question was whether this was Trump’s Liz Truss moment, the conclusion being that although Trump had more resources to deal with the situation there were clear similarities.
For all the yes-men surrounding Trump, there are quite a few others, such as Democrat politicians and economists finding fault with the strategy. Simon Johnson, a Nobel prize-winning economist and professor at MIT’s Sloan School of Management reckons the administration is ‘floundering’. The official version of Trump’s fantasy allegedly anti-globalisation strategy is that the tariffs will ‘lure an influx of manufacturers to set up plants in the US, while at the same time enabling the US to tax the world, not its citizens, prompting a stream of countries to strike new deals with Washington and eliminate US trade deficits – the gap between what it imports and exports – with other leading economies… Economists can’t see this working’. Indeed, even the first bit about companies moving manufacturing to the US and setting up factories is grossly unrealistic given the practicalities and funding requirements in such uncertain times. But this is one of the biggest annoyances: Trump has the world (aided and abetted by the complicit media with their wall to wall coverage) dancing to his tune (so he thinks), subject to every passing whim expressed by this emotional two year old. ‘Nothing is certain under this president. From longstanding geopolitical relationships to constitutional term limits, he has little time for established norms. Erratic policymaking is a feature, not a bug, of his administration. Trump has forged this uncertainty, and uses it as a short-term political tool – leaving the world to hang on his every word, be it uttered in the Oval Office, or posted on his social network. But it has a longer-term economic cost, too’. Yes, stagflation and/or recession.
A number of commentators have picked up on Trump’s casual reaction to what’s still a crisis. ‘After lighting a fuse under global financial markets, Donald Trump stepped back – all the way to a Florida golf course. A week later, having just caved to pressure to ease his trade tariffs, the US president defended the retreat while hosting racing car champions at the White House. Trump had spent the time in between golfing, dining with donors and making insouciant declarations such as “this is a great time to get rich”, even as the US economy melted down’…. his attitude as markets fall suggests man detached from anxieties of ordinary voters – and surrounded by yes men’. Democrat Kurt Bardella didn’t hold back: ‘He’s certainly living up to the caricature of being a mad king…When you’re addressing a ballroom in a tuxedo, telling people to take the painful medicine, or on your umpteenth golf vacation while economic chaos is rippling throughout this country and others, at best you’re completely out of touch. At worst, you’re a sociopathic narcissist who doesn’t give a crap about anyone suffering. Ultimately there will be a political price to pay for that’. Trump laments that we haven’t heard about the American Dream for decades, shamelessly exploiting this outmoded concept to deceive his followers even more. How long will it take the MAGA crowd to see the light?
Of course there’s been no shortage of contributions from UK commentators, including veteran journalist and economist Will Hutton, whose marvellous opener reads: ‘Liberation Day was, of course, a tragic idiocy based on a bewildering inversion of reality. The rest of the world has not been ripping off or pillaging and plundering the US, as claimed by Trump launching his salvo of tariffs, the highest for a century. The truth is the opposite. We have lost at least 5% of GDP from leaving the EU; now Trump will cost up to another 1% or worse, according to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, and more again as the world potentially embarks on a full-scale trade war, heralded by China’s tit-for-tat tariffs on Friday.
In his great book The Great Crash, 1929, JK Galbraith wrote that the interaction of the self-feeding unwinding of a stock-market bubble, trade-crippling tariffs, overextended financial institutions, massive income inequality, economic ignorance and collapse of trust in economic leadership that were the proximate causes of the Great Depression would be unlikely to happen again’. But now it could well be, is his message, and we should be forging key relationships with other countries rather than dancing attendance on Trump. ‘Trump’s America has forfeited global trust. The world has other choices apart from paying tribute to him and his sycophants now running what was once a great country with the prime aim of self-enrichment’.
Here political parties have been preparing for local government elections on 1 May, yet it seems to me the media have been very quiet about the Runcorn by-election scheduled for the same date. This is the one triggered by the resignation of Labour’s Mike Amesbury, who stepped down following his conviction for assault. Reform UK is targeting this seat besides many in local government – it will be interesting to see how successful their disingenuous and racist rhetoric proves.
It could just be coincidence but it has been suggested that news of Rishi Sunak’s resignation honours was deliberately released at this very politically busy time. And what terrible news it is, bringing the honours system even more into disrepute. Reward for failure is illustrated in the key figures of the last government getting knighthoods (eg Jeremy Hunt, Mel Stride and Grant Shapps, who has already altered his bio to this effect) and erstwhile Brexit, disastrous education reform and PPE VIP lane architect Michael Gove gets a peerage. It must be so galling for peers who work hard in the Lords, sitting on key committees and contributing to debates at all hours, to be surrounded by such disingenuous lightweights. Indeed, ‘Sir’ Grant’s entitled tweet suggests that he actually believes the deserving narrative and that he did a good job. ‘Honoured to receive a Knighthood in the former Prime Minister’s Resignation list. It’s always been a privilege to serve our country, albeit through some incredibly challenging years’. Some X users didn’t hold back: ‘Lord Gove. Tory Brexiteer in a government that failed for fourteen years. A backstabbing traitor, as responsible as anyone for wrecking the country. Rewarded with a job for life in the House of Lords, at our expense, to legislate on everyone. Sickening’. ‘Sir Jeremy Hunt. A man who used a loophole to avoid paying £100,000 in stamp duty when purchasing seven luxury flats in Southampton. His failure to declare it was an “honest mistake”. Arise Sir Jezza – Great Britain 2025’.
And on the subject of undeserved privilege, monarchist BBC News informs us that following their return from Italy Queen Camilla said that King Charles ‘loves his work and it keeps him going’ and that as his health is ‘getting better… now he wants to do more and more’. Of course this is media gaslighting because these activities aren’t ‘work’ yet the constant media spin is what a workaholic Charles is. (I would concede, though, that the knighting of the afore mentioned Tory failures would feel like work). Asked by a journalist whether the King will now take it a bit easier Camilla said ‘dream on’ and ‘That’s what he’s driven by – helping others’ – you couldn’t make it up. Besides his massive sovereign grant he’s helping himself to all the income from the Duchy of Lancaster.
Same thing with Prince William and the Duchy of Cornwall, which is charging us £1.5m a year for an abandoned prison on Dartmoor, set to continue for another 24 years. This separate ‘private estate’ system needs to stop and the funds diverted to the overarching Crown Estate, which is at least subjected to public scrutiny. And hot on the heels of his father’s trip to Italy, William has taken his family on an Easter skiing trip when it’s not very long since the last holiday. There’s also been plenty of comment about the media’s attempt to airbrush out of history the actual start of the Charles and Camilla relationship. ’Who could believe it was 20 years?’, the Queen mused about their marriage.
Prices are rising due to both general and Trump-fuelled inflation, hospitality partly attributing this to the rise in the living wage and employers’ national insurance contributions. But you really notice when a restaurant bill, say, used to be around £30 per head (I remember one place costing £10 in the late 90s!) and it’s now at least £40. Socialising is more important than ever in these uncertain times and, while people might find the cost of dinner too high, meeting friends for coffee or tea has been a good and longstanding custom. It’s a relatively low cost event when other luxuries are unaffordable but it could soon be a tenner for two coffees.
An additional factor here is the particular rise in the cost of coffee beans and cocoa due to climate change issues affecting harvests and transport costs bumping up the cost of coffees and hot chocolates in cafes. This is London so items will be pricier but a friend was ‘hit’ by the £4 cappuccino this week. But we also have to wonder about establishments’ profit margins – are these being overly protected and all the costs passed onto consumers rather than being shared?
This problem is being acutely felt in Sweden, because of the longstanding attachment there to ‘fika’, ‘the historically hardwired Swedish tradition of meeting for a catch-up over a coffee and a biscuit or cake’, which happens in the workplace besides the community. An ethnologist said: ‘Both coffee and fika culture are a central part of how Swedes develop both personal and work relationships, so the cost of coffee is a high priority. If you visit somebody you will always be offered coffee and to decline a cup of coffee can be impolite’. Now I come to think of it, we often see this in Scandi crime tv series. Low-cost alternatives include meeting at home or going on walks, but it is not quite the same as fika, ‘which plays a key social role in an otherwise often introverted society’. It will be interesting to see how this goes because the article also reports that young people there are eschewing coffee in favour of energy drinks and the like.
On a tangentially related topic we hear that some reknowned cultural institutions are getting fewer visitors than in 2019, 30% in the case of the Tate Galleries. Others which also haven’t bounced back since the pandemic include the Royal Academy (visitors down 50%) and the National Gallery (down 47%). I wonder if it’s even crossed their minds that exhibition tickets are very expensive and cafes in these places even pricier than those outside. These cultural venues are supposed to take an inclusive approach and make their offerings appealing to all social classes but these ticket and café prices suggest that quite a few are continuing to prioritise the middle classes who can afford them.
Finally, as we approach Easter (although the timing is almost immaterial with such items available the year round) retailers have once again been falling over themselves to get the most novel form of hot cross buns onto the supermarket shelves. Asda apparently has tiramisu buns, Sainsburys has custard cream flavoured ones, M&S has millionaire’s ones ‘studded with bits of salted caramel fudge’ and in Australia (why not here, you could ask) McDonald’s has launched a hot cross bun flavoured McFlurry. Anyone tried them? These dentists’ nightmares are also a way to put on a few pounds before the chocolate egg feast starts!
Happy Easter to all!
Politics and mental health - the missing link? 